We have to safeguard our portfolios (and our investment management businesses) against the danger stemming from the fact that the thing that's most likely to happen—which our understanding of cycles can tell us—may not happen until long after it first becomes likely. And we have to steel ourselves emotionally so as to be able to live through the potentially long time lag between reaching a well-reasoned conclusion and having it turn out to be correct. Howard Marks

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Added on: December 26, 2020